I can see your argument for the first 4 points. I think this point is way off. Waymo had its first vehicle running in 2009. 16 years later it's still only running in very limited situations. Tesla does not have full self driving car. I think this is a case of the recent progress in generative AI causes people to assume the big break through is just around the corner. But there are so many details to get through and overcome first and its the details that take the most time. This will probably happen at some point but I reckon in about 20 years or so.